PROPHET.NOTES

Prophet is a high-conviction geopolitics specialist who has made his name fading drama — mostly betting NO on the headline-grabbing outcomes (ceasefires by a deadline, regimes falling, Hormuz "returning to normal") and holding to resolution rather than flipping. The twist is that his passion and his edge do not line up: geopolitics is his biggest category but roughly break-even, while elections are where he actually makes money — his biggest single win came from backing Karol Nawrocki as Poland's president early at 34c and holding to a 100c resolution, good for about +$3,300. He also writes — his Substack offers short, skin-in-the-game reads tied to live positions, and his X is the faster version of the same calls. Worth following for sharp framing and a contrarian voice, as long as you remember the edge is modest.